Introduction
In Was Edward Bagley the grandson of James Bagley? I was trying to provide an argument that showed the possibility that Edward Bagley could be the son of Richard Bagley of Providence, Pennsylvania and the grandson of James Bagley of Nobletown. Recent results from autosomal DNA indicate the descendants of Edward are related to the descendants of other Bagley families from Kentucky and New York. This new information strengthens the arguments previously made.
DNA Results
I recently submitted a DNA sample to Ancestry. While waiting for the results I entered a family tree showing my confirmed ancestry to Edward Bagley ignoring other lines. I entered Richard V. Bagley (1766) as Edward's father and Esther as his mother. I included Richard's family with Jane Clark. I included the people I believed where Richard's siblings: Elias, Bethiah, Jesse. I added neighbors who reasonably could be the Richard's siblings: Azor, Asher, and John. I entered the next two generations based on previous research and add the generations to Samuel - i.e. James (1730?), James (1704), John Bagley (1668), and Samuel. Filling out the siblings for each of these generations filled out a hypothetical family based on available sources and speculation. I included plausible descendants that I was not certain about and noted the speculation in publicly available comments.
When results were available, I linked the DNA test to the tree I entered and waited for two days for Ancestry to provide me with matches. Once I had matches, I reviewed the Thrulines, Ancestry's program to match family trees to DNA results. Filtering to just my entered family tree limited the results to 7 couples, one for each generation. My parents had no additional matches - this was not surprising, none of my siblings, children or my siblings' children had submitted samples. My grandparents showed matches with a discrepancy. My grandfather had five additional matches to my grandmother's four. This was caused by the tree my aunt had entered. Based on that tree, Thrulines identified my aunt as my grandmother. The five matches were my uncle's three children, my aunt and one of her sons. My great grandparents added 3 matches - the grandchildren and great grandchildren of my grandfather's younger brother. My twice great grandparents added 45 matches. They were spread across four of my great grandmother's eight siblings. The next generation was Edward Bagley and Julia Ann Grant. This is last generation where there is a consensus on relationships and sources are widely available. Edward and Julia added 181 matches for a total of 234.1 Richard and Esther are the first point were there is a disagreement on identification. Richard had 4 matches. Esther had 209 matches. I believe the matches for Esther made up of myself and any of my cousins who entered Ether Puffer in their tree or their tree did not contain information about Edward's parents. Individuals who had entered the then current information from FindaGrave were not included.2 The four matches for Richard were myself and three descendants of Nancy (Bagley) Lutman. This was a strong indication I might be on the right track. The next generation, James Bagley and Sarah showed 10 matches: 7 descendants of John Bagley from Erie county, New York, a descendant of Alfred Bagley of Broome County and a descendant of Edward Bagley of Columbia and Berkshire counties.
Evaluating Thrulines
Because Thrulines are only as good as the information in the trees on Ancestry, they are vulnerable to incorrect or speculative information in those trees.3 Likewise, changes made to my speculative tree might update Thrulines to add or remove listed matches. Aside from reviewing obvious anomalies, I did not spend time evaluating the Thrulines for Edward or any of the generations connecting to Edward. This history is well documented and is largely accurate. The connection to Nancy was a pleasant find - I had long speculated the man born in Columbia was Edward's father. The 7 descendants of John Bagley partially resolve the coincidence of two Bagley families using the uncommon name Cyrenus. The other descendants of James appear to be descendants of Josiah Bagley through his sons Eli and Joel. Someone incorrectly attributed Joel to his neighbor Edward. They were apparently unaware of Edward's will which listed his living heirs and does not include Joel. Both individuals are then likely descendants of Josiah.4
This gave me three groups to validate. The next step was to review the shared matches for the individuals identified from Thrulines. The results for Nancy's descendants were not promising. There were no other descendants of Edward listed in their lists. These are distant cousins - half fifth cousins and half fifth cousins once removed. Ancestry claims they can detect fifth cousins 1 out of 3 times.5 Simulations predict a half fifth cousin has about a 1 in 12 chance of having measurable DNA - a half fifth cousin once removed has about a 1 in 25 chance.6 With more than 200 samples from Edwards family you would expect multiple members would also match one of the three. The descendants of Josiah and John had multiple members of Edward's family in their lists as expected.
Moving Beyond Thrulines
Reviewing matches allowed me to add family members who didn't have trees linked to their DNA tests. In the case of parent a sibling relationships, Ancestry's pro tools model seems to be extremely accurate.7 Using Ancestry's protools, I created a taxonomy to help me identify tests that were associated to specific families and their relationships. Initially I started with five groups: descendants of Edward Bagley, descendants of Nancy (Bagley) Lutman, descendants of John Bagley, descendants of Josiah Bagley, and descendants of my fathers ancestors who are not Bagleys. I added groups as needed.
Once I had my groups, I started updating the family tree to reflect possible relationships from matches. I made a few decisions:
- I would add individuals up to my grandfather's generation - the purpose of this tree was to help identify Edward Bagley's relatives, not to create a complete list of descendants of any given individual
- I would add or subtract individuals based on the sources and matches found
These efforts resulted in identifying additional matches increase the number of probable family members giving us the following results:8
- Edward Bagley: 460 matches or probable matches
- John Bagley of Erie County: 27 matches or probable matches
- Josiah Bagley: 7 matches or probable matches
- Nancy (Bagley) Lutman: 6 matches
Grouping matches also highlight the need for additional groups. I added the following groups:
- for my mother's relatives. The Mormon community is relatively small and over represented in Ancestry's samples. It was not unusual to find someone who was related to my father who had a relative that was related to my mother. Rarely, one of my father's cousins married one of my mother's cousins
- for the Grant relatives of Edward's wife Julia (Grant) Bagley - Julia is the youngest of an unusually large family and some cousins intermarried. Some of Julia's relatives show up in the lists of shared matches for almost all descendants of Edward.
- for my father's family that is not related to the Bagleys.
- for the Decker family. The Deckers are a large and prolific family from New York with roots back to New Amsterdam. They lived in the same counties as the Bagleys from at least 1760 to 1800. Any matches with ancestors from New York could plausibly be connected to this line rather than a Bagley line.
- for any Bagley lines that had a common ancestor outside of groups already identified
Some individuals belonged to more than one group and were marked with more than one group. For example, my grandmother and grandfather arranged a date between their first cousins. The cousins eventually married and their descendants are marked both as descendants of Edward Bagley and descendants of my father who do not fall into another group.
Methods for Reviewing Matches and Results
The first pass was to review shared matches for individuals identified by Thrulines. This allowed me to group matches and identify relationships with a reasonably high confidence. For example, I quickly identified from my aunt's test, my uncle, her four children and one grandchild, and my uncle's three children, expanding tests for my grandparents from five to ten. Using the same methodology, I expanded number of identified tests for the descendants for Edward Bagley, Nancy Bagley, John and Josiah Bagley. The second pass involved looking at shared matches that didn't fit into one of the groups that we shared but were distantly related. This showed the need to group and flag members of my mother's family, the Grants, and the Deckers and to separate them from the other descendants of my father's family. When groups of closely related people were identified, I grouped them together and reviewed their common ancestors. When possible, I identified a tentative connection to James Bagley's family based on location and relative age. From this pass I added the following groups:
- The descendants of Able D. Bagley of Tioga, Pennsylvania
- The descendants of David Bagley of Columbia, NY
- The descendants of John and Prudence Bagley
- The descendants of James Bagley and Frances French
- The descendants of Ira Petty and Caroline Hoffman
The third pass involved searching share matches trees for the name Bagley. This pass added additional matches for the families identified. I found a few matches with distant connections to Samuel Bagley. This pass also identified matches that were descendants of Orlando Bagley. Additional passes searching for families that married identified daughters of probable members of the Bagley families failed to add identifiable matches.
Interpretations and Hypotheses
I have identified 30 matches and possible matches for Abel D. Bagley of Tioga. Abel was born in Pennsylvania in the last decade of the eighteenth century.9 His descendants show a large number of shared matches with the descendants of Edward Bagley. His birth place, birth date, and the region he lived in leave me to believe he is probably a descendant of James Bagley of Nobletown, possibly a child of one of his sons that settled the Wyoming river valley.10 Asher, John, Elias, Richard, Jesse and James have at least one record in the Wyoming area. Azor may also be present.11 Asher moved to the Northwest Territory and eventually to what would become Arkansas. John moved to Erie county NY. Elias moved his family to Venango, Pennsylvania. Richard moved to Kentucky. Jesse moved to Michigan. James' records are difficult to follow. We know James Bagley has at least one child born between before1780.12 Based on census records, Richard could have as many as 6 children born before 1810; the oldest son born before 1790. Because Abel didn't migrate out of Pennsylvania, I suspect he is probably the child or James or Richard. There is an off chance he is a child of Azor. Tentatively I am putting Abel with Richard. Additional information is needed to make a better placement.
I have identified 21 potential descendants of David Bagley of Columbia. David's first wife is possibly a member of the Decker family.13 Nine of the the matches are descendants of his first wife. The remainder are descendants of his second wife, indicating David likely shares a common ancestor with Edward. Two of David's children are represented by the matches - Daniel Bagley,
son of his first wife, and Prudence, daughter of his second wife. Currently, FamilySearch identifies David's parents as John Bagley and Esther Pitcher.14 The amount of shared DNA and the number of shared matches possibly indicates closer relationships to the families from Columbia county than the one reported in FamilySearch. Coupled with David's presence in Columbia county leads me to believe he is possibly the son of John and Prudence Bagley. Additional information is needed to confirm the family is correctly identifying David's father as either John Bagley.
I identified 21 descendants of John and Prudence Bagley among my matches. This includes descendants of sons, John and Daniel, and daughter Mercy Bagley Bixby. John moved his family to Ohio. Daniel and Mercy remained in New York. This strengthens the claim that John and James the proprietors of Nobletown are brothers. It also shows the John that moved to Ohio is part of this family. The family in Ohio indicates the mother of this family is Rhoda Renselaer. Baptismal records in New York indicate the oldest son, John is the son of Neeltji Shufelt.15 This would reorganize the family with at least the eldest two children, John and Sally, being the children of Neeltlji. The children born in Ohio are likely the children of Rhoda - there are no records of Neeltji in Ohio and she would have been 50 when the first son was born in Ohio. The middle children are hard to place. Either woman could be the mother based on the children's ages. There is no identified marriage record for Rhoda, nor death record for Neeltji.
I identified 5 descendants of James Bagley and Frances French among my matches. These are exclusively the descendants of their son Allen. James Bagley likely migrated to Arkansas with Asher Bagley. Asher is possibly a son of James Bagley and brother of Richard Bagley. Reminisces of Independence indicates James and Asher are brothers.16 Currently I have the James Bagley listed as the son of Asher. If Asher were the brother of Asher, James would need another wife. Additional information is need to clarify the relationship between the two men - the age difference between the men is 23 years. Josiah Bagley, possibly Asher's brother, was born 8 year prior. While it is possible the same woman had children 31 years apart, it is very unusual. Additionally, the James Bagley from the Wyoming valley is possibly Asher's brother.
I have 12 descendants of Caroline (Hoffman) Petty. Caroline was the widow of Ira Petty of Tompkins county, New York who died during the Civil War in Virginia. Family trees on Ancestry list her maiden name as Bagly. The only document showing a maiden name is the death certificate of one of her daughters who migrated to Pennsylvania. Shared matches indicate the shared ancestor is likely a member of one of the Bagley families in New York. Caroline is possibly a descendant of Conrad Hoffman a palatine immigrant to New York in the 18th century. His descendants settled in Dutchess county, New York. A Georg Hoffman, also known as Jurrian, and Magretha Moor baptized children in Kinderhook. It is plausible a daughter of John and Prudence married a son of Georg and Magretha.
The two matches descended from Samuel Bagley are not related to any other matches with Bagley connections, likely indicating the DNA match is from another line. Similarly the four matches descended from Orlando Bagley are not related to the other Bagley families. The match may represent shared DNA from the small number of people in Colonial New England prior to 1750.
Discussion
The parents of Edward are contested. The first evidence we have of someone identifying Richard of the Wyoming valley is a query in Boston Evening Transcript.17 The query was published on May 18, 1940. The source record was obtained from the Genealogical Society of Utah indicating the query likely came from a descendant of Edward. Later publications identify Richard of Amesbury and Esther Puffer as Edward's father.18 The Identification of Richard as Richard of Amesbury is still current among many members of Edward's family. Later census records for the children of Edward identify his birth place as New York, perhaps indicating the children had performed research showing Edward was born in New York in spite of the sources created during his lifetime. This may have been reflected in John Grant Bagley's assertion his father was born in New York.19 The DNA evidence appears to support a birth in New York: the descendants of Edward are related to several families with origins in New York.
The relationship between Richard V. Bagley and Edward is less certain. DNA matches at lower levels indicate several possible relationships from relatively close to very distant. For example, my matches with 10 cM include fourth cousins related through Edward Bagley, fifth cousins related through William Grant, and ninth cousins related through Tristan Hillman. These relationships are well documented and the trees for these individuals do not have glaring mistakes. All five individuals descended from Nancy (Bagley) Lutman share 11 cM with me. They are not matched to any other descendants of Edward Bagley. Some are matched to other Bagley families in New York. Since Ancestry does not map DNA to specific chromosomes, I can not determine if all five individuals share the same markers and if those markers may have come from a common ancestor.
Sharing DNA with two individuals who are also related doesn't indicate all three share a common ancestor. I have reviewed the available trees for the descendants of Nancy and find, aside from Richard, all of their ancestors have origins south of the Mason Dixon line. My ancestors who settled in North America prior to 1850 are exclusively from New England and New York, it is extremely unlikely we share a common ancestor through those lines prior to the European settlement of North America. If Richard is not the common ancestor responsible for the matches, the ancestors would likely be from the British Isles and would likely make the descendants of Nancy very distant cousins to me.20 This raises my confidence the identification of Richard as a common ancestor.
There are no matches to the descendants of Nancy's younger brother Richard. He appears to have many descendants. The lack of matches has a few possible sources:
- The descendants of Richard have not submitted DNA tests to Ancestry.
- The descendants of Richard submitted tests to Ancestry, but the test do not match mine based on Ancestry's algorithm.
- The people identified as descendants of Richard are not descendants of Richard and/or Richard has no living descendants.21
Finding relatives of Edward or other related lines with share matches for the families of Richard T W Bagley would strengthen the connection between Richard V Bagley and Edward.
The descendants of John Bagley of Erie county include descendants of both of his probable sons, John A and Gilbert. Matches fall between 8 and 46 cM. Ancestry identifies these as relatively close relationships. Because some of these individuals also match my uncle and cousins I can use Blaine T. Bellinger's DNA painter to evaluate the results by comparing two people with the same relationship to show possible relationships. When evaluating the shared matches with my uncle and cousins, the range of possible relationships included those expected if John and Richard are brothers. The matches that can be evaluate eliminate more distant relationships. The matches are on the higher side of the distribution - the 80th percentile of the comparison sample. The relationships predicted by DNA painter appear to be more accurate than the relations predicted by Ancestry. The closer relationships predicted by Ancestry invite speculation there is a second shared line between John and Richard. There is little information about the women who married John and
Richard. John's wife may be named Elisabeth based on a land record that
may be for this family. Richard's wife Esther is only named on Edward's
patriarchal blessing. The measure DNA falls into the expected ranges. While additional related lines may increase amounts, the increase would not push the measurement outside the expected range. The available DNA measurement does not support or exclude the possibility these two women are related - perhaps sisters or close cousins.
Matches to descendants of Josiah Bagley confirm he is likely related to his neighbors James and John. This man is possibly Lt. Josiah Bagley of the New York Line.22 The matches are descendants of his two sons Eli and Joel. Unfortunately, there are no descendants of his two daughters. Had I identified matches to Margaret Bagley Adsit, it would have increased the likelihood the father of Eli and Joel is Lt. Josiah.
Summary and Further Areas for Research
Based on the information available to me through Ancestry DNA, Edward Bagley is probably the son of the Richard Bagley born in Columbia county in 1766 who migrated to Luzerne County, and from there to western New York, Kentucky, and Missouri. The descendants of Edward appear to be related to the descendants of Nancy Bagley Lutman, a daughter from Richard's last marriage in Kentucky. Additionally, descendants of Edward are related to families from western New York that are possibly descendants of James and John Bagley the proprietors of Nobletown. Matches for the descendants of John Bagley and Edward partially explains the use of the name Cyrenus in both families, possibly indicating a common origin. Matches for the descendants of Josiah Bagley raise the possibility Josiah is Richard's brother rather than his cousin. The inclusion of families related to John Bagley support the contention the James and John Bagley, the proprietors of Nobletown, were probably brothers. Matches included descendants of John who settled in Greene county and confirmed the John Bagley who settled in Greene county likely migrated to Ohio with his last wife.
Matches indicate the family of Abel Bagley is related to Edward Bagley. Abel's birth place is identified as Pennsylvania possibly indicating Abel was born to one of the men who settled in the Wyoming valley. Matches to the descendants of James Bagley of Arkansas confirm sources that connect his family to Columbia county and indicate he is probably related to the proprietors of Nobletown. The matches for descendants of Caroline Petty confirm that family's oral tradition that Caroline's maiden name or the maiden name of her mother is Bagley and they may be related to the families from Columbia county.
Ancestry DNA has provided valuable information but left open several questions for further research including:
- The mother of Edward remains a mystery. Are descendants of her relatives listed among the matches for Edward's family? If so, how would they be identified?
- The connection between Edward and Abel is high speculative. Does the family of Abel have additional information that might identify how he is connected to the families from Luzerne county and Columbia county?
- Is Lt. Josiah Bagley the father of Joel and Eli?
- How is Asher Bagley related to his neighbor James? How are they related to the family in Columbia?
- How is Caroline Petty related to the families from Columbia?
End Notes
1At this time, the number of matches has grown by two as additional members of this family have submitted DNA tests or updated a public tree so it could be matched against mine.
2When I started this project FindaGrave identified Richard of Amesbury as Edward's father and Richard's wife Sarah Bailey as his mother. For the public trees I checked, my relatives that were not listed as matches had Richard and Sarah listed as Edward's parents. FindaGrave has since been updated to reflect the identification of Richard V. Bagley as Edward's parent.
3FamilySearch has this same issue with View Relationship.
4Josiah Bagley's identification is a puzzle for another day. There are two (possibly related) families claiming Lt. Josiah Bagley is part of their family. Alfred Bagley noted his grandfather was born in Massachusetts and had two sons and two daughters. One daughter remains unidentified and adding Lt. Josiah's daughter who remained in Columbia county would supply the missing daughter. The descendants of Thomas Gray Bagley claim Josiah, but there are some discrepancies in the described relationship. If this is correct, Josiah would likely be Thomas older brother born in Manhattan.
5Cousin statistics (https://isogg.org/wiki/Cousin_statistics)
6How often do two half relatives share DNA? (https://hapi-dna.org/2020/11/how-often-do-two-half-relatives-share-dna/)
7Pro Tools enhanced shared matches allows you to review a list of shared matches with the predicted relationship to the user selected. This allowed me to not only see who was related but also how they were related. The Ancestry model seems to overweight close relationships. This works very well for relationships where there are very few choices. This is very helpful when there is a parent or sibling listed. For relationships that are further out, I found the two suggested relationships were not often not the ones I confirmed with available sources. Gedmatch has a relationship predictor that is more accurate. For example for 15c match AncestryDNA predicts a fourth cousin or half third cousin twice removed relationship. GedMatch's Relationship Probability Calculator predicts only a 1 in 20 chance that this will be the correct relationship. I suspect AncestryDNA is modeling based on the relationships users confirm and users are more likely to be able to confirm closer relationships. The Ancestry model also uses statistical phasing to assign matches to each parent. This is usually correct - I've only found one instance in the 1000 or so matches reviewed where the parent Ancestry assigned did not match the expected parent.
8Results from 2 June 2025. Matches where I could identify the exact relationship through shared appropriately sourced family trees or a close relationship genetic relationship - parent or sibling to a match. Possible matches indicate individuals who were closely related (2nd cousin or closer) to matches but I couldn't necessarily identify the exact relationship, e.g. there were three or more possible relationship based on the amount of DNA, but the individual likely shared a common identified ancestor.
9Depending on which census you believe, Abel was born either 1791 or 1800.
10Asher, John, Richard, Jesse and James have at least one record in the Wyoming area. Azor may also be present. Abel would be the right age to be one of the males listed in the 1800 census with either Richard or James Bagley. There is a James Bagley in Pittstown in 1800. There is a Richard Bagley in Seneca NY in 1800. Both households have at least on male child under 10.
11Ezra Bagley heads a household in Luzerne county PA in 1790. This could be Azor or Elias misheard.
12James stated he had one child in his 1780 petition to Congress. See James Bagley of Westmoreland Revisited.
13David's first wife is possibly Christina Decker. If she is correctly identified she would be my first cousin seven times removed i.e. she is the first cousin of my 5g. grandfather or we share 7g. grandparents.
14John is the great grandson of Samuel Bagley of Weymouth. He is probably a cousin of the proprietors in Nobletown.
15John was baptized at Hillsdale in 1807. His mother's brother and wife are the sponsors.
16Arkansas History Commission. Publications of the Arkansas Historical Assoc. Vol 3, 1911. pg 344 Asher had a son with Catherine House named Asher. It is not clear which Asher is James' brother.
17"Boston, Suffolk, Massachusetts, United States records," images,
FamilySearch
(https://www.familysearch.org/ark:/61903/3:1:3Q9M-CSQW-MVKM?view=explore
: Jun 14, 2025), image 6 of 9; New England Historic Genealogical
Society.
Image Group Number: 101799769
18A History of Documents: Richard Bagley and Esther Puffer See also "Family Group Records Collection, Archives Section, 1942-1969," images, FamilySearch (https://familysearch.org/ark:/61903/3:1:3QS7-89QR-98BJ?cc=2060211&wc=WWXQ-X4N%3A352088201%2C352159401 : 20 May 2014), B > Bagley, James David - Bahr, Hans Hinrich > image 198 of 1339; The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, compiler, Family History Library, Salt Lake City, Utah.
19See Some Descendants of Richard Bagley and of his son Edward Bagley of New Brunswick and Salt Lake. (1973) and John Bagley record book, 1894
20The proposed family tree has 10 generations from me to Samuel Bagley. My other lines in colonial New England and New York vary between 9 and 13 generations. I expect this is fair representation for most of my cousins.
21Richard T W Bagley married a cousin of Stonewall Jackson prior to the Civil War. They had two daughters. He and his wife separated. There is a sensational 1855 newspaper article detailing a later marriage and possible bigamy. The wife from the later marriage was involved in a series of lawsuits in the 1870's. In those lawsuits she purports Richard died circa 1863. In the 1880's a man named Richard T W Bagley is living in Texas with a large family consisting of a wife born in Illinois and several children born in Missouri, Arkansas, and Texas. The daughters from his first marriage were cared for by his wife's uncle. Probate records show the uncle acting as their guardian until his death in 1869. This presents two plausible scenarios: Richard died during the Civil War and the person in Texas had assumed his identity, or Richard disappeared and didn't emerge back into public view until 1880. If it is the former it is unlikely the family in Texas would be closely related to me.
22 See The Mysterious Lieutenant Josiah Bagley and A Wildly Speculative Reconstruction of the Descendants of Josiah Bagley and Ann Lockwood of Fairfield, Connecticut. There are two families with plausible origins for Lt. Josiah Bagley. Either could be correct.
