Markov Chains Monte Carlo, Oh my!

Yesterday was the craziness we call Librarypalooza. We set up tables on the first floor explaining various library services from printing help to employment opportunities to research appointments. And then in exchange for visiting two or more of our tables we bribe the students with a cookout on the plaza in front of the Library. I was on the crowd control team guiding students and handing out passports to prove they had visited at least two tables. I didn't do much crowd control.

The research sent students to find me. Oh, your majoring in Science - we have a librarian who can help you with that. He's out in the lobby. I spent a good amount of time giving on the fly "How to use the library for Science research" and making research appointments for later in the week. And handing out my business cards.

One statistics student cornered me. He has an interesting problem. He is working on a work study project and needs to do some economic modeling. We briefly discussed various models he could use and MCMC came up. I had mentioned Monte Carlo methods, since I'm looking at them to model a demand driven acquisition (DDA) program. He couldn't remember what the other MC in MCMC stood for and commented it was an advance method. I thought nothing of it until I got in the shower this morning.

I was thinking about DDA and how my curve fit model was giving me good predictions - the experience in the last quarter seem to indicate the model overstates the number of books being purchased. I've been thinking about how to use Monte Carlo methods and it hit me - I have a Markov Chain. Using a physical analogy, think of each title as having a "state", there is a certain probability will flip to the next state. This sequence of states is the Markov Chain. It's a rather complex system - I think of it as a series of phase transitions - from available for rent to either owned or out of the catalog/no longer available.

So one of today's projects will be translating the model into a spreadsheet and see if predictions match reality. I am in over my head. Just keep swimming. Just keep swimming.

Day 700

Saturday was a big day for my younger son William. He had his final recital with his first violin teacher and he finished his 700th day of continuously playing violin. In spite of family vacations, summer breaks and other challenges.

Quote for the Day

I just finished How the mighty Fall by  Jim Collins.  I really like this quote on page 120:

The signature of the truly great versus the merely successful is not he absence of difficulty, but the ability to come back from setbacks, even cataclysmic catastrophes, stronger than before. Great nations can decline and recover. Great companies can fall and recover. Great social institutions can fall and recover. And great individuals can fall and recover. As long as you never get entirely knocked out of the game, there remains hope. 

So, as long as you can keep moving there is no reason to lose hope. Carry on!

Wanted: George Robert Hewlings Emigration Records

George Robert Hewlings is my great great grandmother's second husband. Lucy Granger nee Woodward, married him in 1867 three years after her first husband, Henry Hinsdale Granger, died. I believe Lucy left her first husband sometime in the late 1850's. Land records from Hardwick, Massachusetts show Henry buying land and then abruptly, both he and Lucy are selling land. I haven't found a divorce record, though family oral history indicates there was a divorce. She may have simply moved out of town to get away from Henry. By 1860, he's living in Hardwick with one of the older boys, and Lucy with the two youngest children is living near their married daughter in Clinton County, Iowa._1,2

The last 20 years of George Robert Hewlings life are well documented. George Robert Hewlings was a congregational minister from England who died in 1877 when his family was living in Salt Lake City.  I first find him in the United States in 1859 performing baptisms at the Ephrata Dutch Reform Church, in Fulton County, New York.₃ He continued to return and perform baptisms at that Church through 1876. By 1862 he was seeking ordination in the Episcopal Protestant Church in Western New York.₄ He then moved to the midwest to head a Congregational Church and meets the divorced/widowed Lucy Granger. They marry in Porter County, Indiana in 1867.₅ He is a minister in various parts of the midwest until the family moves to Salt Lake City sometime between 1870 and 1877 where Rev. Hewlings died. We know Lucy's son, Louis, is mining in Utah by 1872.₆ Reverend Hewlings in listed as the head of the Congregational Church in the 1874 Salt Lake City Directory.₇ Lucy's grandson Leslie Scott Snyder is born in Utah in 1875.₈ So, I speculate the family had set up at least partial residence by the early 1870s, with somewhat regular trips to other parts of the country. By 1880, Lucy is living with her daughter's family in Kansas.₉ The Snyder's younger son, Corydon Granger, was born in Atchison County, Kansas in 1879.₁₀

Finding George Robert Hewlings prior to 1859 is a trick.  There is a George Robert Hewlings who appears in non conformist records as the husband of Martha Freeman and the father of three children:

• George Freeman Hewlings born in 1826 in England and who may have settled in New Zealand.₁₁
• Martha Freeman Hewlings born in 1831 in England. She married Peter Barr and died in 1882.₁₂
• Henry Freeman Hewlings born in 1833 in England.₁₃

I believe this is the person who emigrated to the United States. George is living with the family in the 1851 Census₁₄, but is absent in the 1861 census₁₅. There is a G. R. or G. K. Hewlings who entered the United States at Castle garden in September 1859, prior to the baptisms at Ephrata Reformed Dutch.₁₆ There is a mention in the June 1967 Daffodil Journal that G. R. Hewlings is the father of Martha Barr and died in Salt Lake City.₁₇ What I would really like to confirm this speculation is some record of Reverend Hewlings leaving the United Kingdom. I'm hoping some descendent in the UK or New Zealand sees this and has these records.

Notes:

¹"United States Census, 1860," index, FamilySearch (https://familysearch.org/pal:/MM9.1.1/MZH2-CD2 : accessed 16 Aug 2014), , Hardwick, Worcester, Massachusetts, United States; citing "1860 U.S. Federal Census - Population," Fold3.com; p. 108, household ID 880, NARA microfilm publication M653; FHL microfilm 803533.

²"United States Census, 1860," index, FamilySearch (https://familysearch.org/pal:/MM9.1.1/M825-4X1 : accessed 16 Aug 2014), , Lyons Township, Clinton, Iowa, United States; citing "1860 U.S. Federal Census - Population," Fold3.com; p. 140, household ID 1064, NARA microfilm publication M653; FHL microfilm 803316.

³"Ephratah Dutch Reformed Church, Baptisms." Ephratah Dutch Reformed Church, Baptisms. N.p., n.d. Web. 18 May. 2014.

⁴Journal of the Proceedings of the Annual Convention, Diocese of Western New York - Protestant Episcopal Church. Diocese of Western New York, Held in St. Paul's Church, Buffalo, on Wednesday, August 20, and Thursday, August 21st, A. D. 1862. p. 28, 29, 31, 151

⁵"Indiana, Marriages, 1811-1959," index and images, FamilySearch (https://familysearch.org/pal:/MM9.1.1/KDH3-TSC : accessed 16 Aug 2014),<unknown>, 17 Oct 1867; citing Porter County; FHL microfilm 001686156.

⁶I speculate the family moved to the Utah Territory to be close to family - Lucy's four younger sisters were Mormon - her sister Emmaline was quite prominent in the Church. It is possible they were also moving to join her son Louis, since it is not clear from the records who arrived first - Louis from Louisiana or New York, or the Hewlings/Snyders from the midwest.

L. E. Granger is a name listed in newspaper articles about meetings taking place in the Ophir Mining District, starting with  December  7, 1871. see "Mining Intelligence." Salt Lake Daily Tribune and Utah Mining Gazette, Tuesday, December 12, 1871, p. 2 (http://newspaperarchive.com/us/utah/salt-lake-city/salt-lake-daily-tribune-and-utah-mining-gazette/1871/12-12/page-2 : accessed April 27, 2014) and "Miners Meeting." Tuesday, December 12, 1871, p. 2

⁷Sloan, Edward L., Gazetteer of Utah and Salt Lake City directory, p.228 Salt Lake Herald: Salt Lake City, 1874. Ancestry.com. U.S. City Directories, 1821-1989 [database on-line]. Provo, UT, USA: Ancestry.com Operations, Inc., 2011. (http://Ancestry.com : accessed August 20, 2014)

⁸"Scott Leslie Snyder." US Sons of the American Revolution Applications 1889-1970 (http://Ancestry.com : accessed April 20, 2014)

⁹"United States Census, 1880," index and images, FamilySearch (https://familysearch.org/pal:/MM9.1.1/MFPN-F6W : accessed 16 Aug 2014), , Atchison City, Atchison, Kansas, United States; citing sheet 239D, NARA microfilm publication T9.

¹⁰"United States World War II Draft Registration Cards, 1942", index and images, FamilySearch (https://familysearch.org/pal:/MM9.1.1/V1K2-N9C : accessed 16 Aug 2014), <unknown>, 1942.

¹¹"England Births and Christenings, 1538-1975," index, FamilySearch (https://familysearch.org/pal:/MM9.1.1/J38B-W5J : accessed 29 Aug 2014), George Robert Hewlings in entry for George Freeman Hewlings, ; citing St Mary Islington, Middlesex, England, reference ; FHL microfilm 838728.

¹²"England Births and Christenings, 1538-1975," index, FamilySearch (https://familysearch.org/pal:/MM9.1.1/J38R-XB6 : accessed 29 Aug 2014), George Robert Hewlings in entry for Martha Freeman Hewlings, ; citing DR WILLIAMS LIBRARY, LONDON, LONDON, ENGLAND, reference ; FHL microfilm 815947.

¹³"England Births and Christenings, 1538-1975," index, FamilySearch (https://familysearch.org/pal:/MM9.1.1/JMLF-M9J : accessed 29 Aug 2014), George Robert Hewlings in entry for Henry Freeman Hewlings, ; citing DR WILLIAMS LIBRARY, LONDON, LONDON, ENGLAND, reference ; FHL microfilm 815947.

¹⁴"1851 England Census - Ancestry.com." 1851 England Census - Ancestry.com. N.p., n.d. Web. 18 May. 2014.

¹⁵"1861 England Census - Ancestry.com." 1861 England Census - Ancestry.com. N.p., n.d. Web. 18 May. 2014.

¹⁶"G. K. Hewlings - Castlegarden.org"(http://www.castlegarden.org/quick_search_detail.php?p_id=626900), retrieved 29 Aug 2014) Hewlings is a 54 year old gentleman who arrived on the Hamburg and South Hampton line on 1 September 1859.

¹⁷THE REV. JOHN J. BROADHURST, Callington, Cornwell, England; THE VICAR AND HIS DAFFODILS LOOM LARGE IN HISTORY; The Daffodil Journal, Volume 3 No. 4, June 1967, p. 159, http://dafflibrary.org/wp-content/uploads/1967_June_ADS_Journal.pdf, retrieved 18 May 2014

Front Page News

Dear Julianne,

This would be a private communication, but you didn't put contact information in, and it is just creepy to call someone out of the blue and say - "Are you Julianne? Did you just reserve all the names I've been working on for the last two years for the Temple? Why didn't you contact me before you did it? You're a jerk, and your behavior reminds me of a seagull. I do all the work and swoop in and take it."

I understand the social pressure to take family names to the temple. There is this assumption that because some estimate there are billions of people we can identify in the various records people have kept, we can all find thousands of family names. It doesn't work that way when your family is large and has been looking for family names for five generations. The official line doesn't take that into account. When someone like us find a name there is a line of 30 people who would all like to do the work, and it can get pretty acrimonious. This is why people reserve names for years - SO NO ONE ELSE STEALS THEM!

And you're in Happy Valley, so the pressure is much worse. I imagine you're a good BYU student. You can't possibly understand how deeply, I hate your school for what it represents to me. My experiences with BYU students and graduates have not been favorable.

I don't really care if you do the temple work. I was hoping names would fly under the radar long enough for my seven year old to turn twelve. Highly unrealistic, I know. If I didn't want someone to do the work, I could have hoarded the information for five years. But you see, I want to collaborate - I can't go everywhere and do everything.

I'm just a little hurt that I wasn't told - I have flags for changes, apparently this isn't a change that matters. But, it's obvious I've been working on them, and my contact information is public. I do that because I want to be contacted. And because I don't think just knowing a name is sufficient. You need to know stories if you are going to develop compassion for these people.

Letitia A. Thorndike is the best kept historical secret of Louis Edwin Granger's life. In 1870, the marriage and the incidences around it were front page news, but his family ignore it for more than 200 years. Letitia was from a good storied, New England family. I think she was an intersex individual - the evidence is scant, but her family has a little boy in the 1850 and 1855 census that is the same age as Letitia, and then a girl in 1860 and 1865 who is probably Letitia. I think the Thorndike's little boy hit puberty and obviously wasn't a little boy. I think the A. is for Augustin/Augustine the name on the early census records and preserves the name she was given at birth. If my wild speculation is correct, Letitia probably couldn't have children, which raises speculation that the marriage could have been a match of social convenience - Letitia gets legitimacy as a woman and the widow of a war hero. Granger gets cover for his financial shenanigans in Louisiana. Some newspaper accounts imply, Granger intended to have marital relations with Letitia, supporting this guess. We will never know for certain.  I don't have birth record for Letitia and birth records are very good in Massachusetts at the time. Granger didn't include Letitia in his autobiography, and Letitia claimed she was a widow at least as early as the 1880 census. I'm still looking for an annulment or divorce.

Elizabeth Harriet Rickerby is another mystery wife not included in Granger's autobiography. I have much less information on her. She was born in Brooklyn. Her parents were immigrants - I just tracked down their marriage. She was a teenaged button maker in 1880. Louis is twice her age when they marry. I don't know what happened to her - she just disappears after the marriage. I know much more about her younger sister, Lottie - she married three times, Louis is a witness to the first marriage, had a son by her first husband and died in the midwest. I don't think she has any descendants - as far as I can tell her son never married.

So Julianne here's the deal. You can do the temple work, but I need some information from Utah. I can't get there anytime soon. I need collaborators. I have people who might do it for me, but they aren't related to the individuals I'm researching. You are. You have a vested interest. You can stop being a seagull. You can get a lot more out of this than just names and dates. Contact me. I will inundate you with information. You can make some field trips for me. May be I can make some field trips for you. (Nation Archives, Library of Congress) We can work something out.

Apple Fries at Legoland Florida

I just returned from a family vacation to Florida. We spent a week in Disney World and then spent a few days with friends visiting the Gulf Coast. The last day, we stopped at Legoland Florida. Legoland Florida was a good match for my children. We like Lego - my wife is an AFOL.₁ Each child has an ample collection of the bricks. In the past, we have taken our children to two Lego Kidfests and Legoland Florida was on their list of things to do while visiting Florida.

We were not disappointed. The park geared toward younger and more timid children, which suited my children well. After Disney, the pace of the smaller park was welcome. We were able to take in most of the park in a day without being hurried. There were no long waits for rides and we were able to ride everything our children had requested. Rides tend to be smaller and slower than at bigger theme parks - there are no big fast roller coasters, but rides have just enough thrills for younger children.

My children particularly liked the driving school where they could earn a "driver's license" after operating electric cars on a closed track. They also enjoyed the hanging coaster "Flight Trainer".

The adults enjoyed looking at the Lego models throughout the park and talking with a "Master Builder" about how the models are maintained. We also enjoyed a quiet walk through Cypress Gardens which included looking for lizards native to central Florida.

We did not visit the water park which has a separate admission, but were told by friends in the area it is very popular with Florida residents who can purchase an annual pass. We also didn't have time to visit the World of Chima or watch any of the shows.

If you decide to go to Legoland Florida, make sure you try some apple fries. Apple fries are made from granny smith apples peeled, cored, cut into sticks, and deep fried. Fries are then coated in cinnamon sugar and served with whipped cream or caramel sauce. We bought an order when we arrived and picked up another two to go as the park was closing.

One downside to Legoland is an upper age limit of twelve on some rides. My oldest who turns 13 next week would not have been able to ride some of the rides had we gone two weeks later. I think he would have been very disappointed. Also, unless you are looking for a park specific item, you are better off shopping at home than purchasing Lego at the park.

With Legoland Florida building an onsite hotel, scheduled to be open sometime next year, it would make a good destination for a family trip if you have young children or Lego fans.

¹ Adult Fan of Lego

Carrie Pearson - Found!

Until yesterday, I have posited that Carrie Pearson could be a fiction created by Louis Edwin Granger. She existed on secondary family records and in genealogies that relied on him to report them. There was no birth record, no death record, no marriage record - nothing. I was able to piece together a slim picture based on secondary sources -

• Carrie Pearson may have been born about 1845, lived in New Orleans and married Granger about 1865, presumably when Granger was stationed in New Orleans with the Union Army.¹
• Louis' wife during the war may have had a brother named George, who was a trader in New Orleans²
• My grandmother, Louis' granddaughter, had told my father this crazy story that Louis had shot his first wife after catching her in bed with another officer.

This was not much to go on, and there aren't many primary civil public records on-line for Southern states during this period.

So last week, I got my first lead. I went to the National Archives in Washington, DC and pulled the record for Louis Edwin Granger's court martial. I found a few interesting things:

• Granger was represented by a lawyer by the name of Eliphalet Pearson.
• In his closing statement after being convicted he wrote: “In conclusion the accused would state that domestic afflictions and calamities not proper to be disclosed but with which some of the court are familiar and which had their influence in the settlement of debts with a view to keep these matters from the public gaze - may have led accused to acts of indiscretion, but he believes himself utterly incapable of knowingly defrauding his fellow man or that government under whose auspices he has been acting, and under whose banner it has been his pride and glory to act.”
• The court martial materials contained a letter detailing and act of adultery from his unnamed while Louis was working with the Freedman's bureau.³

I found it very interesting that the lawyer has the same name as the alleged first wife. I decided to research Eliphalet Pearson. I found that Eliphalet Pearson was a rather famous early educator and minister affiliated with Harvard University. There was also an Eliphalet Pearson who was rather prominent from Indiana. And there was an Eliphalet Pearson who graduated from Dartmouth. This last Eliphalet Pearson became a lawyer moved to New Orleans in 1865.⁴ According to the 1850 Federal Census and the 1855 Massachusetts Census, there is a young woman living in the house named Caroline Pearson. Who was born about 1845 in New York. And a young man named George Pearson.

At this point I was very excited. I didn't have anything definitive - it was all circumstantial, but also very interesting. I found Eliphalet died in 1870.⁵ I looked for graves for Eliphalet Pearson in New Orleans. Findagrave directed me to Greenwood Cemetery. At Greenwood cemetery, I found Eliphalet Pearson buried at 11 Mulberry Cedar Aloe. The site was shared by two other people: Selone Pearson - a badly transcribed index for Salome Pearson, Elipahlet's wife, and Carrie Granger. Most likely the Caroline Pearson/ Carrie Pearson who married Louis Edwin Granger.

Notes:

¹ Granger, James Nathaniel; Launcelot Granger of Newbury, Mass and Suffield Conn.: A Genealogical History, p 368-369.
² "The Luck of Louis Granger. War's romance illustrated by grateful Scotchman - bequeathing $50,000 to Union Officer." The Daily Picayune (New Orleans, LA) Monday, May 02, 1887, pg. 4, Issue 98, col E.
³Record Group 153: Records of the Office of the Judge Advocate General (Army), 1792 - 2010, Series : Court Martial Case Files, compiled 12/1800 - 10/1894, War Department. PP-479.
⁴A memorial of the class of 1827, Dartmouth college, Dartmouth College. Class of 1827, Jonathan Fox Worcester, Centennial anniversary of the College, 1869, p. 51; Bench and Bar of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, Volume 1, William Thomas Davis, Boston History Company, 1895, p.450.
⁵General Catalogue of Dartmouth College and the Associated Institutions(1880) p. 27