Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Markov Chains Monte Carlo, Oh my!

Yesterday was the craziness we call Librarypalooza. We set up tables on the first floor explaining various library services from printing help to employment opportunities to research appointments. And then in exchange for visiting two or more of our tables we bribe the students with a cookout on the plaza in front of the Library. I was on the crowd control team guiding students and handing out passports to prove they had visited at least two tables. I didn't do much crowd control.

The research sent students to find me. Oh, your majoring in Science - we have a librarian who can help you with that. He's out in the lobby. I spent a good amount of time giving on the fly "How to use the library for Science research" and making research appointments for later in the week. And handing out my business cards.

One statistics student cornered me. He has an interesting problem. He is working on a work study project and needs to do some economic modeling. We briefly discussed various models he could use and MCMC came up. I had mentioned Monte Carlo methods, since I'm looking at them to model a demand driven acquisition (DDA) program. He couldn't remember what the other MC in MCMC stood for and commented it was an advance method. I thought nothing of it until I got in the shower this morning.

I was thinking about DDA and how my curve fit model was giving me good predictions - the experience in the last quarter seem to indicate the model overstates the number of books being purchased. I've been thinking about how to use Monte Carlo methods and it hit me - I have a Markov Chain. Using a physical analogy, think of each title as having a "state", there is a certain probability will flip to the next state. This sequence of states is the Markov Chain. It's a rather complex system - I think of it as a series of phase transitions - from available for rent to either owned or out of the catalog/no longer available.

So one of today's projects will be translating the model into a spreadsheet and see if predictions match reality. I am in over my head. Just keep swimming. Just keep swimming.

Monday, August 25, 2014

Day 700

Saturday was a big day for my younger son William. He had his final recital with his first violin teacher and he finished his 700th day of continuously playing violin. In spite of family vacations, summer breaks and other challenges.

Friday, August 22, 2014

Quote for the Day

I just finished How the mighty Fall by  Jim Collins.  I really like this quote on page 120:

The signature of the truly great versus the merely successful is not he absence of difficulty, but the ability to come back from setbacks, even cataclysmic catastrophes, stronger than before. Great nations can decline and recover. Great companies can fall and recover. Great social institutions can fall and recover. And great individuals can fall and recover. As long as you never get entirely knocked out of the game, there remains hope. 
So, as long as you can keep moving there is no reason to lose hope. Carry on!

Sunday, August 17, 2014

Wanted: George Robert Hewlings Emigration Records

George Robert Hewlings is my great great grandmother's second husband. Lucy Granger nee Woodward, married him in 1867 three years after her first husband, Henry Hinsdale Granger, died. I believe Lucy left her first husband sometime in the late 1850's. Land records from Hardwick, Massachusetts show Henry buying land and then abruptly, both he and Lucy are selling land. I haven't found a divorce record, though family oral history indicates there was a divorce. She may have simply moved out of town to get away from Henry. By 1860, he's living in Hardwick with one of the older boys, and Lucy with the two youngest children is living near their married daughter in Clinton County, Iowa.1,2

The last 20 years of George Robert Hewlings life are well documented. George Robert Hewlings was a congregational minister from England who died in 1877 when his family was living in Salt Lake City.  I first find him in the United States in 1859 performing baptisms at the Ephrata Dutch Reform Church, in Fulton County, New York.3 He continued to return and perform baptisms at that Church through 1876. By 1862 he was seeking ordination in the Episcopal Protestant Church in Western New York.4 He then moved to the midwest to head a Congregational Church and meets the divorced/widowed Lucy Granger. They marry in Porter County, Indiana in 1867.5 He is a minister in various parts of the midwest until the family moves to Salt Lake City sometime between 1870 and 1877 where Rev. Hewlings died. We know Lucy's son, Louis, is mining in Utah by 1872.6 Reverend Hewlings in listed as the head of the Congregational Church in the 1874 Salt Lake City Directory.7 Lucy's grandson Leslie Scott Snyder is born in Utah in 1875.8 So, I speculate the family had set up at least partial residence by the early 1870s, with somewhat regular trips to other parts of the country. By 1880, Lucy is living with her daughter's family in Kansas.9 The Snyder's younger son, Corydon Granger, was born in Atchison County, Kansas in 1879.10

Finding George Robert Hewlings prior to 1859 is a trick.  There is a George Robert Hewlings who appears in non conformist records as the husband of Martha Freeman and the father of three children:
  • George Freeman Hewlings born in 1826 in England and who may have settled in New Zealand.11
  • Martha Freeman Hewlings born in 1831 in England. She married Peter Barr and died in 1882.12
  • Henry Freeman Hewlings born in 1833 in England.13
I believe this is the person who emigrated to the United States. George is living with the family in the 1851 Census14, but is absent in the 1861 census15. There is a G. R. or G. K. Hewlings who entered the United States at Castle garden in September 1859, prior to the baptisms at Ephrata Reformed Dutch.16 There is a mention in the June 1967 Daffodil Journal that G. R. Hewlings is the father of Martha Barr and died in Salt Lake City.17 What I would really like to confirm this speculation is some record of Reverend Hewlings leaving the United Kingdom. I'm hoping some descendent in the UK or New Zealand sees this and has these records.

Notes:

1"United States Census, 1860," index, FamilySearch (https://familysearch.org/pal:/MM9.1.1/MZH2-CD2 : accessed 16 Aug 2014), , Hardwick, Worcester, Massachusetts, United States; citing "1860 U.S. Federal Census - Population," Fold3.com; p. 108, household ID 880, NARA microfilm publication M653; FHL microfilm 803533.

2"United States Census, 1860," index, FamilySearch (https://familysearch.org/pal:/MM9.1.1/M825-4X1 : accessed 16 Aug 2014), , Lyons Township, Clinton, Iowa, United States; citing "1860 U.S. Federal Census - Population," Fold3.com; p. 140, household ID 1064, NARA microfilm publication M653; FHL microfilm 803316.

3"Ephratah Dutch Reformed Church, Baptisms." Ephratah Dutch Reformed Church, Baptisms. N.p., n.d. Web. 18 May. 2014.

4Journal of the Proceedings of the Annual Convention, Diocese of Western New York - Protestant Episcopal Church. Diocese of Western New York, Held in St. Paul's Church, Buffalo, on Wednesday, August 20, and Thursday, August 21st, A. D. 1862. p. 28, 29, 31, 151

5"Indiana, Marriages, 1811-1959," index and images, FamilySearch (https://familysearch.org/pal:/MM9.1.1/KDH3-TSC : accessed 16 Aug 2014),<unknown>, 17 Oct 1867; citing Porter County; FHL microfilm 001686156.

6I speculate the family moved to the Utah Territory to be close to family - Lucy's four younger sisters were Mormon - her sister Emmaline was quite prominent in the Church. It is possible they were also moving to join her son Louis, since it is not clear from the records who arrived first - Louis from Louisiana or New York, or the Hewlings/Snyders from the midwest.

L. E. Granger is a name listed in newspaper articles about meetings taking place in the Ophir Mining District, starting with  December  7, 1871. see "Mining Intelligence." Salt Lake Daily Tribune and Utah Mining Gazette, Tuesday, December 12, 1871, p. 2 (http://newspaperarchive.com/us/utah/salt-lake-city/salt-lake-daily-tribune-and-utah-mining-gazette/1871/12-12/page-2 : accessed April 27, 2014) and "Miners Meeting." Tuesday, December 12, 1871, p. 2

7Sloan, Edward L., Gazetteer of Utah and Salt Lake City directory, p.228 Salt Lake Herald: Salt Lake City, 1874. Ancestry.com. U.S. City Directories, 1821-1989 [database on-line]. Provo, UT, USA: Ancestry.com Operations, Inc., 2011. (http://Ancestry.com : accessed August 20, 2014)

8"Scott Leslie Snyder." US Sons of the American Revolution Applications 1889-1970 (http://Ancestry.com : accessed April 20, 2014)

9"United States Census, 1880," index and images, FamilySearch (https://familysearch.org/pal:/MM9.1.1/MFPN-F6W : accessed 16 Aug 2014), , Atchison City, Atchison, Kansas, United States; citing sheet 239D, NARA microfilm publication T9.

10"United States World War II Draft Registration Cards, 1942", index and images, FamilySearch (https://familysearch.org/pal:/MM9.1.1/V1K2-N9C : accessed 16 Aug 2014), <unknown>, 1942.

11"England Births and Christenings, 1538-1975," index, FamilySearch (https://familysearch.org/pal:/MM9.1.1/J38B-W5J : accessed 29 Aug 2014), George Robert Hewlings in entry for George Freeman Hewlings, ; citing St Mary Islington, Middlesex, England, reference ; FHL microfilm 838728.

12"England Births and Christenings, 1538-1975," index, FamilySearch (https://familysearch.org/pal:/MM9.1.1/J38R-XB6 : accessed 29 Aug 2014), George Robert Hewlings in entry for Martha Freeman Hewlings, ; citing DR WILLIAMS LIBRARY, LONDON, LONDON, ENGLAND, reference ; FHL microfilm 815947.

13"England Births and Christenings, 1538-1975," index, FamilySearch (https://familysearch.org/pal:/MM9.1.1/JMLF-M9J : accessed 29 Aug 2014), George Robert Hewlings in entry for Henry Freeman Hewlings, ; citing DR WILLIAMS LIBRARY, LONDON, LONDON, ENGLAND, reference ; FHL microfilm 815947.

14"1851 England Census - Ancestry.com." 1851 England Census - Ancestry.com. N.p., n.d. Web. 18 May. 2014.

15"1861 England Census - Ancestry.com." 1861 England Census - Ancestry.com. N.p., n.d. Web. 18 May. 2014.

16"G. K. Hewlings - Castlegarden.org"(http://www.castlegarden.org/quick_search_detail.php?p_id=626900), retrieved 29 Aug 2014) Hewlings is a 54 year old gentleman who arrived on the Hamburg and South Hampton line on 1 September 1859.

17THE REV. JOHN J. BROADHURST, Callington, Cornwell, England; THE VICAR AND HIS DAFFODILS LOOM LARGE IN HISTORY; The Daffodil Journal, Volume 3 No. 4, June 1967, p. 159, http://dafflibrary.org/wp-content/uploads/1967_June_ADS_Journal.pdf, retrieved 18 May 2014